Summary
The data show that Julián is clearly only strong in Districts 3,4,5,6 & 7 * but that [Castro Schubert Hardberger] has the potential of cutting into Castro's strength in all of those districts except for 5. Hardberger is strongest in Districts 1,2,8,9, & 10 **.
If you count the votes cast for Castro and Hardberger in their respective strongholds you find that Julián has an overall vote lead of 13,624 over Phil. In other words, Hardberger gets 4297 more votes than Julián in Districts 1, 2, 8, 9, & 10 while Julián gets 17,921 more votes than Dr. Phil in Districts 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7. The problem is the 29,704 voters who cast their ballots for Schubert. We don't know where they will cast their votes. You can assume that most of the voters residing in Districts 8, 9, & 10 who voted for Schubert, also will support Hardberger. If they do this, Hardberger wins easily on Election Day. The issue here, however, is whether the Schubert voters feel passionately enough about the election at this point to come out and cast their vote.Some pundits have said that the runoff elections in Districts 6 and 7 will help Julián more than Hardberger. This may be so but this might only help if Castro can increase his share of the vote in those districts. If his share remains the same and the Schubert voters still come out for Hardberger, Hardberger still wins.See the full content of this document
Extract
Tío Político; 'the End of the Race'
Early Voting in the 2005 Mayoral Election is concluding as I compose this column. Election Day is on Tuesday and by 7:30 pm of June 7, 2005 we will know who the next mayor of our fair city will be for the next two years.
Several ...See the full content of this document
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